Impacto de la industrialización en el desempleo en 91 países a nivel global: un enfoque con modernas técnicas de cointegración y causalidad

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Publicado: feb. 5, 2022

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Leidy Acaro
Carrera de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Loja, Loja, Ecuador
Karen Iñiguez
Carrera de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Loja, Loja, Ecuador

Resumen

La dinámica industrializada de las economías ha permitido reducir los niveles de desempleo y al menos controlarlos, por lo que el objetivo de esta investigación es definir el impacto de la industrialización sobre el desempleo en 91 países del mundo clasificados por niveles de ingresos dentro del periodo 1990-2016 utilizando datos de panel y técnicas de cointegración. Se tomaron indicadores de desarrollo del Banco Mundial (2017). Al emplear las técnicas de cointegración de Pedroni (1999) y Westerlund (2007) se encontró que existe equilibrio de largo y corto plazo respectivamente. Al aplicar el modelo DOLS de Pedroni (2001) se encontró que hay fuerza del vector de cointegración en los países a nivel individual, y al utilizar el modelo PDOLS de Pedroni (2001) se estableció que existe fuerza del vector de cointegración para cada grupo de países a nivel global. Los resultados de la prueba de causalidad de Dimietry y Hurlin (2012) indican que existe causalidad bidireccional y causalidad unidireccional. Las implicaciones de política están enfocadas en el diseño de infraestructuras adecuadas y amigables con el ambiente para lograr el desarrollo industrial eficiente de cada país y reducir los niveles de desempleo; además de realizar modelos de gestión industrial que establezcan una ubicación adecuada para las industrias en cada país.

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Acaro, L., & Iñiguez, K. (2022). Impacto de la industrialización en el desempleo en 91 países a nivel global: un enfoque con modernas técnicas de cointegración y causalidad . Revista Económica, 9(2), 66–78. Recuperado a partir de https://revistas.unl.edu.ec/index.php/economica/article/view/1211
Número
Vol. 9 Núm. 2 (2021): RVE Vol 9 (Julio-Diciembre 2021)
Sección
ARTÍCULOS DE INVESTIGACIÓN
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