Emisiones de C02, urbanización, consumo de energía eléctrica y capital humano, un análisis de cointegración para datos de panel a nivel mundial período 1986 - 2016

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Publicado: jul. 15, 2020
Palabras clave:
Datos de panel, Contaminación, Urbanización, Consumo de energía, Capital humano

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Alejandro Ramos
Universidad Nacional de Loja
Belén Jumbo
Universidad Nacional de Loja

Resumen

El objetivo de esta investigación es examinar el nexo causal entre las tasas de crecimiento de las emisiones de CO2, urbanización, consumo de energía eléctrica y capital humano de 114 países a nivel mundial. Los países fueron clasificados en 4 grupos, de acuerdo a su nivel de ingreso per cápita promedio. El período de estudio comprende 1986-2016. Se analizaron técnicas de cointegración de Pedroni (1999), corrección de error de Westerlund (2007) y de causalidad Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) para evaluar la relación entre las variables. Para evaluar la fuerza del vector de cointegración en el corto y largo plazo se considera el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios de panel dinámico para los países en forma individual y el modelo de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios dinámicos para los grupos de países. Los resultados de la prueba de causalidad indican que existe causalidad unidireccional entre la urbanización y las emisiones de CO2 en los EILC. El consumo de energía causa unidireccionalmente a las emisiones de CO2 en los HIC Las emisiones de CO2 causan unidireccionalmente al capital humano a nivel global. Existe una causalidad bidireccional entre las emisiones de CO2 y el capital humano en los HIC. Finalmente hay una causalidad unidireccional entre el capital humano y las emisiones de CO2 en los ELIC. Una posible implicación de política derivada de esta investigación es que los países deben considerar el mejoramiento de la estructura de la industria junto con una mayor eficiencia en el uso de la energía y un consumo mesurado de la misma, además de aumentar la participación de las energías renovables paramitigar las emisiones de CO2.

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Ramos, A. ., & Jumbo, B. . (2020). Emisiones de C02, urbanización, consumo de energía eléctrica y capital humano, un análisis de cointegración para datos de panel a nivel mundial período 1986 - 2016. Revista Económica, 5(1), 90–104. Recuperado a partir de https://revistas.unl.edu.ec/index.php/economica/article/view/776
Número
Vol. 5 Núm. 1 (2018): Revista Económica vol 5 (Julio-Diciembre 2018)
Sección
ARTÍCULOS DE INVESTIGACIÓN
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