Efecto del gasto público en el crecimiento económico por grupos de países según el nivel de ingresos: un análisis de cointegración con datos de panel

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Publicado: feb. 5, 2022

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María Montaño
Carrera de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Loja, Loja, Ecuador
Michelle López-Sánchez
Carrera de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Loja, Loja, Ecuador

Resumen

El objetivo de esta investigación es examinar el vínculo causal entre el gasto público y el crecimiento económico en 112 países durante 1980-2016. Primero, utilizamos la prueba de cointegración de Pedroni (1999) y Westerlund (2007) para encontrar el equilibrio y las pruebas de Dumitrescu y Hurlin (2012) para verificar la dirección de la causalidad entre las series. Estimamos la fortaleza del vector de cointegración para países individuales a través de un modelo de Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios Dinámicos (DOLS) para grupos de países que utilizan un modelo de Panel Dinámico con Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios (PDOLS). Los resultados del modelo GLS muestran evidencia a favor de la Ley de Wagner (1877). Al aplicar la prueba de cointegración verificamos la existencia de un equilibrio a largo plazo entre las dos variables. Además, se comprobó la existencia de una causalidad unidireccional que va desde el gasto público al crecimiento económico en los países de ingresos altos, medios altos y bajos y, causalidad bidireccional en los países de ingresos bajos y extremadamente bajos.

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Montaño, M., & López-Sánchez, M. . (2022). Efecto del gasto público en el crecimiento económico por grupos de países según el nivel de ingresos: un análisis de cointegración con datos de panel. Revista Económica, 9(2), 79–91. Recuperado a partir de https://revistas.unl.edu.ec/index.php/economica/article/view/1212
Número
Vol. 9 Núm. 2 (2021): RVE Vol 9 (Julio-Diciembre 2021)
Sección
ARTÍCULOS DE INVESTIGACIÓN
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