Un análisis de cointegración con datos de panel entre exportaciones, densidad demográfica, crecimiento económico y emisiones de CO2

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Jessica Guamán
Wilfrido Torres-Ontaneda


El objetivo de esta investigación es analizar la relación de cointegración entre exportaciones, crecimiento económico y densidad demográfica con emisiones de CO2 a nivel mundial y por grupos de países. Utilizando datos de panel en 90 países para el periodo 1961-2015. Esta investigación se sustenta con la hipótesis de la Curva Ambiental de Kuznets (1955) y evidencia empírica. Utilizando pruebas de cointegración y causalidad para datos en panel los resultados indican que existe equilibrio a largo y a corto plazo entre las variables a nivel mundial y por grupos de países. La fuerza del vector de cointegración en las variables es fuerte, y principlamente la densidad poblacional es contundente en todos los grupos de países. No se encontró existencia de causalidad ni a nivel mundial ni por grupos de países. Las políticas económicas estarían dirigidas a la estabilización poblacional, políticas comerciales y sobretodo políticas ambientales estrictas. Cada gobierno debe aplicar las políticas eficientemente, implementando la tecnología actualizada, potenciando a cada país económicamente y logre disminuir la contaminación ambiental.


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Guamán, J. ., & Torres-Ontaneda, W. . (2022). Un análisis de cointegración con datos de panel entre exportaciones, densidad demográfica, crecimiento económico y emisiones de CO2. Revista Económica, 9(2), 92–108. Recuperado a partir de https://revistas.unl.edu.ec/index.php/economica/article/view/1213


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