Tasas de fecundidad y crecimiento económico a nivel global: nueva evidencia para países con diferentes niveles de ingresos

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Cristian Ortiz
Juan Encalada

Resumen

Los efectos de las tasas de fecundidad sobre la producción han generado un amplio estudio en la literatura económica moderna para tratar de medir el impacto directo sobre el desarrollo de los países, en donde parece existir tanto efectos positivos como negativos sobre la producción, por ello, el objetivo de esta investigación es examinar la relación de corto y largo plazo entre la tasa de fecundidad y el PIB per cápita, considerando la estructura económica de 135 países a nivel global. Con este fin, mediante el método Atlas (2016), clasificamos a los países en ingreso alto, ingreso medio-alto, ingreso medio-bajo, e ingreso bajo. Usando datos del World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) del Banco Mundial y técnicas de cointegración con datos de panel, encontramos que, la tasa de fecundidad afecta negativamente a la producción en los PIMA y PIB, además se encontró un equilibrio de corto plazo medido a través del modelo de corrección de error de Westerlund (2007) y, se encontró también que existe un equilibrio de largo plazo entre estas variables. Una implicación de política económica derivada de esta investigación está enfocada en disminuir o controlar las tasas de fecundidad en los países ya que provocan un efecto negativo sobre la producción y no genera crecimiento de largo plazo sobre la economía.

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Ortiz, C., & Encalada, J. (2018). Tasas de fecundidad y crecimiento económico a nivel global: nueva evidencia para países con diferentes niveles de ingresos. Sur Academia: Revista Académica-Investigativa De La Facultad Jurídica, Social Y Administrativa, 5(9), 15–27. Recuperado a partir de https://revistas.unl.edu.ec/index.php/suracademia/article/view/431
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Artículos de Investigación científica y tecnológica

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